3/9/2022

Mar 10, 2022


3/9/2022
The market already had premium priced in ahead of the WASDE report so an overall neutral/slightly bearish report triggered risk off. There was also some pressure from outside markets with crude oil putting up big reversals on the charts, trading over $20/barrel lower today, but did recover from lows. Crude oil and gas futures were still trading double digits in the red as of around 1 p.m. and trading near values similar to last week. The USDA confirmed two sales this morning, both for the 2021/22 marketing year: 100,000 tonnes of corn to Colombia and 20,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown.

The cuts to US ending stocks were on target with what trade expected for corn and soybeans. South American crop estimates from the USDA were slightly under the average guesses. Wheat ending stocks came much higher than estimates predicted and an extremely overpriced wheat market responded accordingly.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.