Grain > Commentary > 3-9-2022

3/9/2022

Mar 10, 2022

3/9/2022
The market already had premium priced in ahead of the WASDE report so an overall neutral/slightly bearish report triggered risk off. There was also some pressure from outside markets with crude oil putting up big reversals on the charts, trading over $20/barrel lower today, but did recover from lows. Crude oil and gas futures were still trading double digits in the red as of around 1 p.m. and trading near values similar to last week. The USDA confirmed two sales this morning, both for the 2021/22 marketing year: 100,000 tonnes of corn to Colombia and 20,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown.

The cuts to US ending stocks were on target with what trade expected for corn and soybeans. South American crop estimates from the USDA were slightly under the average guesses. Wheat ending stocks came much higher than estimates predicted and an extremely overpriced wheat market responded accordingly.
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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.