3/9/2022

Mar 10, 2022


3/9/2022
The market already had premium priced in ahead of the WASDE report so an overall neutral/slightly bearish report triggered risk off. There was also some pressure from outside markets with crude oil putting up big reversals on the charts, trading over $20/barrel lower today, but did recover from lows. Crude oil and gas futures were still trading double digits in the red as of around 1 p.m. and trading near values similar to last week. The USDA confirmed two sales this morning, both for the 2021/22 marketing year: 100,000 tonnes of corn to Colombia and 20,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown.

The cuts to US ending stocks were on target with what trade expected for corn and soybeans. South American crop estimates from the USDA were slightly under the average guesses. Wheat ending stocks came much higher than estimates predicted and an extremely overpriced wheat market responded accordingly.
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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.