3/8/2022

What used to be referred to as "unprecedented market moves" or "black swan events" are now simply day trade in our commodities.  Extreme volatility has made a tool that was meant to be used as a way to manage risk much riskier than the actual cash grain transaction.  By recent standards, trade was relatively calm through most of the day.  Corn was hanging around 10 lower and soybeans around 10 higher until Putin announced that Russia would cease exports of all products and raw materials through the end of 2022.  Wheat was deep in the red on the day, including some locked limit lower quotes, but turned around after Putin’s announcement.  Other commodity prices spiked following the headline, as well, including May soybeans which traded through the 1700 level for the first time since February 24.  Corn and soybeans eased into the close but the announcement was enough to lift corn to finish mixed on the day.  The USDA confirmed 3 separate export sales this morning: 193,000 tonnes of hard red spring wheat to the Phillipines in 2022/23, 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China 2022/23, and 126,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown in 2022/23.  Tomorrow will see the March WASDE report released at 11 a.m.  Trade is expecting cuts in the US corn and soybeans ending stocks for this marketing year and lower South American crop production.  With everything going on, it will be interesting to see if trade even cares to stabilize if the USDA's numbers line up with trade estimates.