3/8/2021

Mar 08, 2021


3/8/2021
Trade was strongly higher from the start Sunday night, with new contract highs in beans after the May bean contract gapped 8 cents higher at the open following a weekend of heavy rains in the north and central regions of Brazil, creating further delays for an already slow harvest.  New crop corn also set a contract high of 485'6.  It's important to maintain a skeptical approach to crop news out of S. America but it seems as though the seriousness of the situation is increasing with the excessive moisture forcing some farmers to abandon unharvested fields and raising concerns over quality in beans that can be harvested.  There are some production estimates due out this week and it will be interesting to see how they analyze the situation.  Two week forecast models show plentiful precipitation falling over Brazil production areas.  Weekly export inspections were on target with 1,545k tonnes of corn inspected and 588k tonnes of beans inspected.  The USDA also revised the prior week's volume of inspected corn, increasing the number by 25% to 2,050k tonnes.  Corn and beans both finish the day higher but well off of their highs.  The March WASDE report is set to be released at 11am tomorrow morning.  Trade is expecting the USDA to trim down the carryouts for both corn and soybeans. 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.