3/7/2023

Mar 07, 2023


3/7/2023
After ending last week on a high note, corn and soybeans drifted lower for the second consecutive session.  Corn stayed within 3 cents of either side of unchanged, finishing 1-3 lower.  Already trading lower on the day, soybeans tried to muster up some support at the 20-day moving average but broke below that level just after 11 a.m. this morning.  The USDA did not have any follow-up export sale confirmations this morning after a couple nice corn announcements yesterday.  We will get a fresh set of fundamentals for the market to chew on tomorrow at 11 a.m. with March WASDE report.  Pre-report estimates show trade is expecting a 41-million-bushel increase to corn ending stocks to 1.307 bln bushels and a small cut in soybean stocks to 220 mln bushels.  South American production is expected to drop for Argentina and remain steady for Brazil.  After our report is priced in, the market will be back to trading South American weather and will begin discussing the quarterly grains stocks and prospective plantings reports due out at the end of the month.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.