3/7/2023

Mar 07, 2023


3/7/2023
After ending last week on a high note, corn and soybeans drifted lower for the second consecutive session.  Corn stayed within 3 cents of either side of unchanged, finishing 1-3 lower.  Already trading lower on the day, soybeans tried to muster up some support at the 20-day moving average but broke below that level just after 11 a.m. this morning.  The USDA did not have any follow-up export sale confirmations this morning after a couple nice corn announcements yesterday.  We will get a fresh set of fundamentals for the market to chew on tomorrow at 11 a.m. with March WASDE report.  Pre-report estimates show trade is expecting a 41-million-bushel increase to corn ending stocks to 1.307 bln bushels and a small cut in soybean stocks to 220 mln bushels.  South American production is expected to drop for Argentina and remain steady for Brazil.  After our report is priced in, the market will be back to trading South American weather and will begin discussing the quarterly grains stocks and prospective plantings reports due out at the end of the month.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.