3/7/2023

Mar 07, 2023


3/7/2023
After ending last week on a high note, corn and soybeans drifted lower for the second consecutive session.  Corn stayed within 3 cents of either side of unchanged, finishing 1-3 lower.  Already trading lower on the day, soybeans tried to muster up some support at the 20-day moving average but broke below that level just after 11 a.m. this morning.  The USDA did not have any follow-up export sale confirmations this morning after a couple nice corn announcements yesterday.  We will get a fresh set of fundamentals for the market to chew on tomorrow at 11 a.m. with March WASDE report.  Pre-report estimates show trade is expecting a 41-million-bushel increase to corn ending stocks to 1.307 bln bushels and a small cut in soybean stocks to 220 mln bushels.  South American production is expected to drop for Argentina and remain steady for Brazil.  After our report is priced in, the market will be back to trading South American weather and will begin discussing the quarterly grains stocks and prospective plantings reports due out at the end of the month.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.