3/6/2024

Mar 06, 2024


Corn and soybeans mostly drifted around on Wednesday. Corn ventured back and forth on either side of unchanged before firming up at the close to finish 1-2 cents higher. Soybeans spent the day trading from 4 higher to 9 lower until picking up a bid at the end of the session to close from unchanged-2 lower. Corn's ability to hold above the 10-day is certainly giving confidence to those who have entered long positions over the psat week. It appears the funds are satisfied with the size of their current short position, the only thing really holding back corn and soybeans has been this week's wheat trade which has felt some serious pressure from increases in global production forecasts and rumors of U.S. exports being canceled. While analysts are not expecting any fireworks from the U.S. crop balance sheets, they are looking for some sizeable cuts in Brazil production.

Corn is getting a little squeeze between the 10- and 20-day moving averages and appears comfortable to ride this price consolidation into Friday’s report. If we can get some sort of friendly twist, even a small one, we have potential for a small breakout higher and would present an opportunity for the market to sneak back up to the 50-day.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.