3/6/2024

Mar 06, 2024


Corn and soybeans mostly drifted around on Wednesday. Corn ventured back and forth on either side of unchanged before firming up at the close to finish 1-2 cents higher. Soybeans spent the day trading from 4 higher to 9 lower until picking up a bid at the end of the session to close from unchanged-2 lower. Corn's ability to hold above the 10-day is certainly giving confidence to those who have entered long positions over the psat week. It appears the funds are satisfied with the size of their current short position, the only thing really holding back corn and soybeans has been this week's wheat trade which has felt some serious pressure from increases in global production forecasts and rumors of U.S. exports being canceled. While analysts are not expecting any fireworks from the U.S. crop balance sheets, they are looking for some sizeable cuts in Brazil production.

Corn is getting a little squeeze between the 10- and 20-day moving averages and appears comfortable to ride this price consolidation into Friday’s report. If we can get some sort of friendly twist, even a small one, we have potential for a small breakout higher and would present an opportunity for the market to sneak back up to the 50-day.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.