3/6/2023

Mar 06, 2023


3/6/2023
Corn lower and soybeans higher to begin the week.  With the market focused on Argentine crop ratings and weather, trade was aggressive in buying soybeans early in the session on Monday but had given back a majority of gains by the mid-day point.  Corn was stuck in 1-4 cent lower trade for most of the day.  I guess only the soybeans are suffering from drought in Argentina.  The USDA came through at 8 a.m. with two corn sale announcements, both for the 2022/23 marketing year.  These included 110,000 tonnes for delivery to Japan and 182,400 tonnes for delivery to unknown.  Weekly export inspections showed a nice pop in corn shipments, coming in above expectations at 900k tonnes.  Soybeans missed low at 542k tonnes.  That was lowest total for the week going back to the 2016/17 marketing year.  We seem to be stuck in a winter that just doesn't want to end and it’s only a matter of time before trade will want to talk about potential planting delays.  Potential will be there to grab a weather premium on the board.  Fixing basis on any unsold corn you have remaining in the elevator or at home before the end of March should be strongly considered.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.