3/6/2023

Mar 06, 2023


3/6/2023
Corn lower and soybeans higher to begin the week.  With the market focused on Argentine crop ratings and weather, trade was aggressive in buying soybeans early in the session on Monday but had given back a majority of gains by the mid-day point.  Corn was stuck in 1-4 cent lower trade for most of the day.  I guess only the soybeans are suffering from drought in Argentina.  The USDA came through at 8 a.m. with two corn sale announcements, both for the 2022/23 marketing year.  These included 110,000 tonnes for delivery to Japan and 182,400 tonnes for delivery to unknown.  Weekly export inspections showed a nice pop in corn shipments, coming in above expectations at 900k tonnes.  Soybeans missed low at 542k tonnes.  That was lowest total for the week going back to the 2016/17 marketing year.  We seem to be stuck in a winter that just doesn't want to end and it’s only a matter of time before trade will want to talk about potential planting delays.  Potential will be there to grab a weather premium on the board.  Fixing basis on any unsold corn you have remaining in the elevator or at home before the end of March should be strongly considered.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.