3/6/2023

Mar 06, 2023


3/6/2023
Corn lower and soybeans higher to begin the week.  With the market focused on Argentine crop ratings and weather, trade was aggressive in buying soybeans early in the session on Monday but had given back a majority of gains by the mid-day point.  Corn was stuck in 1-4 cent lower trade for most of the day.  I guess only the soybeans are suffering from drought in Argentina.  The USDA came through at 8 a.m. with two corn sale announcements, both for the 2022/23 marketing year.  These included 110,000 tonnes for delivery to Japan and 182,400 tonnes for delivery to unknown.  Weekly export inspections showed a nice pop in corn shipments, coming in above expectations at 900k tonnes.  Soybeans missed low at 542k tonnes.  That was lowest total for the week going back to the 2016/17 marketing year.  We seem to be stuck in a winter that just doesn't want to end and it’s only a matter of time before trade will want to talk about potential planting delays.  Potential will be there to grab a weather premium on the board.  Fixing basis on any unsold corn you have remaining in the elevator or at home before the end of March should be strongly considered.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.