3/5/2021

Mar 05, 2021


3/5/2021
After trading firmly higher overnight, new crop corn set a new contract high for the second day in a row and beans close within earshot of their contract highs, leading the way to a strongly higher finish for the week.  Bullish support came in from several areas today with a flood of investor money buying in all commodities from grains, livestock, proteins, lumber, etc.  Funds flexed their muscle again, maintaining strong support of the 530 level on the May corn contract for the 4th day in a row before midday.  Despite growing concerns over ASF, Chinese corn futures were higher overnight, sending a demand signal to traders in the US.  Today was also the first opportunity for trade to begin positioning themselves for the WASDE report release on Tuesday.  Estimates were out late yesterday showing another trim to both the corn and bean carry outs and an increase to wheat stocks.  Corn was estimated at a 1.47 billion bushel carryout (1.50 in Feb report), soybean estimates averaged 117 million bushels (120 mln in Feb report), and wheat is seen to increase to an 839 million bushel carry out (836 mln in Feb report).  Week to week, corn was 2 lower and beans were 26 higher.  We maintain a long-term bullish bias and this is the ideal market to make sales when you want to and not when you have to.  Enjoy the beautiful weekend!
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.