3/5/2021

Mar 05, 2021


3/5/2021
After trading firmly higher overnight, new crop corn set a new contract high for the second day in a row and beans close within earshot of their contract highs, leading the way to a strongly higher finish for the week.  Bullish support came in from several areas today with a flood of investor money buying in all commodities from grains, livestock, proteins, lumber, etc.  Funds flexed their muscle again, maintaining strong support of the 530 level on the May corn contract for the 4th day in a row before midday.  Despite growing concerns over ASF, Chinese corn futures were higher overnight, sending a demand signal to traders in the US.  Today was also the first opportunity for trade to begin positioning themselves for the WASDE report release on Tuesday.  Estimates were out late yesterday showing another trim to both the corn and bean carry outs and an increase to wheat stocks.  Corn was estimated at a 1.47 billion bushel carryout (1.50 in Feb report), soybean estimates averaged 117 million bushels (120 mln in Feb report), and wheat is seen to increase to an 839 million bushel carry out (836 mln in Feb report).  Week to week, corn was 2 lower and beans were 26 higher.  We maintain a long-term bullish bias and this is the ideal market to make sales when you want to and not when you have to.  Enjoy the beautiful weekend!
 

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.