Grain > Commentary > 3-4-2024

3/4/2024

Mar 04, 2024

Resistance held on corn's first test of the 20-day moving average but we still end Monday with small gains in corn and soybeans.  Soybeans made a lateral jump across their 10-day moving average and held in the green to finish 3-6 cents higher.  Higher closes of any kind are nice to see but it was tough to get excited when soybeans easily fell back off of double-digit higher trade.  Market sentiment for corn is shifting.  For the past 3 months, the easy position to take was going short but now most are viewing that as the higher risk position.  Also, funds were net buyers of corn last week.  If we are able to manufacture a bounce, corn near 450'0 on the May contract looks like a solid target.  The USDA confirmed two sales this morning: 110,000 tonnes of corn to Taiwan for delivery in 2023/24 and 126,000 tonnes of soymeal to unknown split between 2023/24 and 2024/25.  Export inspections for soybeans were above average last week, totaling 1.021 mln tonnes.  This was a nice bump in the total shipment pace for soybeans which now stands at a 4-million-bushel deficit versus 17 million last week.  Corn shipments were reported at 1.084 mln tonnes.  Corn shipment pace remained unchanged at a 27-million-bushel surplus.

Read More News

8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.