Grain > Commentary > 3-4-2024

3/4/2024

Mar 04, 2024

Resistance held on corn's first test of the 20-day moving average but we still end Monday with small gains in corn and soybeans.  Soybeans made a lateral jump across their 10-day moving average and held in the green to finish 3-6 cents higher.  Higher closes of any kind are nice to see but it was tough to get excited when soybeans easily fell back off of double-digit higher trade.  Market sentiment for corn is shifting.  For the past 3 months, the easy position to take was going short but now most are viewing that as the higher risk position.  Also, funds were net buyers of corn last week.  If we are able to manufacture a bounce, corn near 450'0 on the May contract looks like a solid target.  The USDA confirmed two sales this morning: 110,000 tonnes of corn to Taiwan for delivery in 2023/24 and 126,000 tonnes of soymeal to unknown split between 2023/24 and 2024/25.  Export inspections for soybeans were above average last week, totaling 1.021 mln tonnes.  This was a nice bump in the total shipment pace for soybeans which now stands at a 4-million-bushel deficit versus 17 million last week.  Corn shipments were reported at 1.084 mln tonnes.  Corn shipment pace remained unchanged at a 27-million-bushel surplus.

Read More News

2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.