3/4/2021

Mar 04, 2021


3/4/2021
It was assumed to be an uneventful day session after quiet, two-sided trade overnight.  Concerns in Brazil's infrastructure along with a further delay in harvest and bean quality issues from widespread, heavy rains forecasted for the next two days sent beans to 31 higher early in the session.  Corn benefited from spillover support to trade as much as 6 higher, with new crop nosing in a new contract high.  This strongly higher trade was surprising considering a lackluster weekly export sales report had traders clicking sell going into the morning break.  Weekly net sales for corn were poor at 116k tonnes sold (400-800k tonnes estimated) and beans posted a solid number of 334k tonnes (100-500k tonnes estimated).  A lack of fresh news continues to weaken the corn trade but the funds remain long and have been diligently defending the 530 level on the May contract.  Today's rally was sharply killed off shortly after high noon following an announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that stated the Fed would be "patient" in taking action against inflation.  This spurred a large sell off in stocks and commodities with DOW trading as much as 750 points lower.  If nothing else, today is a good reminder that our markets are about more than just acres, yield, and demand.  Soybeans still managed to finish the day 3 higher and corn was mixed.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.