3/31/2022

Mar 31, 2022


3/31/2022
In traditional fashion, the USDA surprised the market with their estimated acres for both corn and soybeans.

Corn: estimated at 89.5 million acres for 2022, down 3.87 million acres from last year (-4%)
Soybeans: estimated at 91.0 million acres for 2022, up 3.8 million acres from last year (+4%)
All Wheat: estimated at 47.4 million acres for 2022, up 0.6 million acres from last year (+1%)

North Dakota was the biggest wild card with 2022 acres compared to last year at -12% corn, -3.4% soybeans, +11.1% hard red wheat, +11.4% durum wheat, and spring wheat -5.5%. Given that its North Dakota, this affects actual total corn and soybean production far less than the loss in total acres. Trade maybe took that into consideration. Old crop corn traded close to limit higher but never touched limit, new crop corn touched limit briefly on the initial reaction after the report. Today’s report was extremely bearish for soybeans which anchored back corn.

Grains stocks as of March 1, 2022.
Corn: stocks in all positions totaled 7.85 bln bushels, up 2% from March 1, 2021.
Soybeans: stocks in all positions totaled 1.93 bln bushels, up 24% from March 1, 2021.
All wheat: stocks in all positions totaled 1.02 bln bushels, down 22% from March 1, 2021.

HUGE bullish initial reaction in corn following the report but end the day 20 cents off the contract’s new high and well below the previous contract high of 747’0. It will be very interesting to see how we close the week, we have potential for a large weekly reversal in EITHER direction.
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Funds could not dump soybean long positions fast enough following the prospective planting report. July soybeans found immediate support at the 50-day moving average.
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Read More News

Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.