3/3/2022

Mar 03, 2022


3/3/2022
Fundamentals remain mostly unchanged but dynamic money flow and volatility continue to maintain their strangleholds on the market.  Spec dollars continue to push the May/July 2022 corn spread even wider, trading out to a 52'4 cent inverse at one point today.  A quick glance around the region shows almost every cash corn bid has moved to the July futures practically overnight.  Last year's inverted corn market helped write a playbook to navigate this year's strange market.  Corn and soybeans traded strong for almost the entirety of the day session, May corn was locked limit several times throughout the day, but it appeared money was heading for the door when the clock struck 1:00 pm.  This was one of the uglier closes we have seen in quite some time.  Corn and soybeans both wiped out about 20 cents of gains in the final 15 minutes to finish mixed on the day.  We had 2 sale announcements at 8 a.m. that included 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years and 337,000 tonnes of corn to unknown for the 2021/22 marketing year.  This corn sale is likely the export business that we were enlightened on earlier this week.  Weekly export sales for old crop were weak for corn (485k tonnes) and within range for soybeans (857k tonnes).  New crop sales for corn were ok with 223k tonnes sold and new crop soybean sales outperformed expectations with 1.386 million tonnes sold. 

Major position dump in the final 20 minutes today. That’s a 20 cent range in corn within 5 minutes.chart.jpg

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.