3/3/2022

Mar 03, 2022


3/3/2022
Fundamentals remain mostly unchanged but dynamic money flow and volatility continue to maintain their strangleholds on the market.  Spec dollars continue to push the May/July 2022 corn spread even wider, trading out to a 52'4 cent inverse at one point today.  A quick glance around the region shows almost every cash corn bid has moved to the July futures practically overnight.  Last year's inverted corn market helped write a playbook to navigate this year's strange market.  Corn and soybeans traded strong for almost the entirety of the day session, May corn was locked limit several times throughout the day, but it appeared money was heading for the door when the clock struck 1:00 pm.  This was one of the uglier closes we have seen in quite some time.  Corn and soybeans both wiped out about 20 cents of gains in the final 15 minutes to finish mixed on the day.  We had 2 sale announcements at 8 a.m. that included 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years and 337,000 tonnes of corn to unknown for the 2021/22 marketing year.  This corn sale is likely the export business that we were enlightened on earlier this week.  Weekly export sales for old crop were weak for corn (485k tonnes) and within range for soybeans (857k tonnes).  New crop sales for corn were ok with 223k tonnes sold and new crop soybean sales outperformed expectations with 1.386 million tonnes sold. 

Major position dump in the final 20 minutes today. That’s a 20 cent range in corn within 5 minutes.chart.jpg

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.