3/29/2021

Mar 29, 2021


3/29/2021
Another day of lighter volume ahead of the planting intentions report.  Trade continues to be more about positioning money rather than fundamentals.  On the technical side, corn and beans have both been testing their 50-day moving averages on a daily basis with May beans closing at 1393'0, slightly above their 50-day MA of 1392'7.  It feels like we are in a bit of a down trend but managed money added to its long positions in corn by 17,275 contracts and 6,813 contracts of beans last week.  Fund net positions are estimated at 350,000 contracts long in corn and 116,000 contracts long in beans.  It feels like there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines ready to come back into the game on Wednesday, they're just waiting to see which side of the market they need to be on.  I am expecting to see a large number of corn acres on the planting intentions.  Weekly export inspections didn't hurt the market but didn't offer much help.  Inspections for the week-ending 3/25 were 1.695 mln tonnes of corn and 425k tonnes of beans.  These were both mid-range of the trade estimates.  Wheat came in below the bottom end of the estimated range at 302k but outperformed expectations the previous 2 weeks.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.