Grain > Commentary > 3-28-2023

3/28/2023

Mar 28, 2023

Corn was quietly mixed but soybeans completed a fourth consecutive session with sizeable gains, continuing on their sharp trajectory upward. Looking at the charts, corn has likely recovered as much as possible ahead of Friday's big reports. Soybeans have some limited upside potential, yet, with room to print 10-20 cents above today's closes. We had another corn sale confirmed by the USDA this morning, this time for 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year. Full trade estimates for Friday's prospective plantings: Corn ranges from 87.677-92.050 million acres, average of 90.880 mln; soybeans range form 87.350-89.620 million acres; average of 88.242 mln; all wheat ranges from 45.744-49.950 million acres, average of 48.852. For comparison, final production numbers for 2022 were 88.579, 87.450, and 45.738 million acres, respectively. With this solid bounce back in futures, we are nearing some nice benchmark prices, once again. Cash grain values near $6.50 corn and $14.40 soybeans should be paid attention to. As always, have sell orders working on report day!

I expect our short-term move on November beans to meet some stiff resistance in between the 50% retracement and the January low (1317’0-1330-2) unless the USDA surprises us with acres on Friday.
bean-chart.png

Read More News

1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.