3/27/2023

Mar 27, 2023


After a short period of lower trade overnight, corn and soybeans turned it around to begin the week strong. Soybeans enjoyed gains of 13-15 cents and corn picked up 5-9 cents on Monday. Corn shook off a poor showing in the weekly export inspections, missing low at 666k tonnes shipped. Soybeans were at the upper end of their expected range with 889k tonnes shipped. We also had another sale announcement at 8 a.m. this morning with the USDA confirming 112,800 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year. Soybeans inspections to date for this marketing year are 54 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA target, up from 44 million last week. Corn shipments for the marketing year are 170 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA target, up from 152 million bushels last week. Trade will likely continue working towards neutral spots on the charts ahead of Friday's prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports.

Textbook inverted head and shoulders pattern on May corn.
corn-chart.png

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.