3/25/2024

Mar 25, 2024


Soybeans pop higher to begin the week and corn bounced around from 2 higher to 2 lower in choppy trade.  With the planting intentions report coming out on Thursday, I expect this type of price action in corn to be consistent throughout the week and the $12 level to be like a magnet for soybeans.  The winter weather system we heard about for 5 days appears to be more of a dud than what was forecasted but it certainly has brought some much-welcomed moisture to our area.  We have minimal frost and that will allow the ground to take advantage of most of this snow.  Weekly export inspections were within their expected ranges and consistent with average volumes for this week of the calendar year.  Corn shipments were reported at 1.228 mln tonnes and soybean inspections totaled 769k tonnes.  Seasonal shipment paces for corn and soybeans also increased their surpluses over the USDA export volume targets.  Corn inspection pace is now at 37 million bushels (+3 mln from last week) ahead of target and soybean inspection pace is 14 million bushels (+6 mln from last week) ahead of target.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.