3/25/2022

Mar 25, 2022


3/25/2022
A firm finish higher in the markets to take into the weekend.  We get our first set of fundamentals to trade next week for the 2022 U.S. crop with some acres intentions with several thinking corn acres will be lost to soybeans and wheat.  Corn is still in the midst of a price rally going back to August 2020 so I can't imagine corn losing too many acres that are already established.  Corn is king.  The saying in politics is "never let a crisis go to waste" so with the ag industry trying to put a number to scale of the crop that Ukraine will get planted this year, seven agricultural lobby groups submitted a letter to Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack asking the USDA to open up four million acres of "prime" farm land currently enrolled in CRP without penalty.  If you are a farmer, you shouldn't be in favor of this.  Off the cuff numbers: a 1/3 of those acres into corn at average production would add over roughly 200 million bushels to our ending stocks, likely push seed, chemical, and fertilizer prices up another 10-15% or more, and wipe about $1.00/bushel value off of the board.  Result: current profit margins? -gone.  Brazil already looks to have a record second crop of corn coming with an extremely fast planting pace and ideal conditions to start.  Their soy production estimates have stabilized in the 120-127 mmt range and wouldn't be surprised to see those estimates begin to increase.  The USDA announced 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/22 marketing year. 
outlook.jpg

Read More News

May 10, 2024
The USDA gave trade a report that was friendly for corn to work with.  Despite a higher finish, the report was quite negative for soybeans with the USDA plugging in a 445 mln bu carryout for the 2024/25 crop year.  What...
May 09, 2024
Markets were steady-higher through the overnight session until the East coast crowd came online at 8 a.m. their time. Corn and soybeans quickly flipped to the red and headed into the coffee break lower where they...
May 08, 2024
Corn and soybeans were lower on Wednesday with corn down 5-8 cents and soybeans giving back 12-19.  The previous 5 days gave our futures a rally we have been waiting for since late February and pull-backs like these...