Grain > Commentary > 3-25-2021

3/25/2021

Mar 25, 2021

3/25/2021
Trade was lower overnight and all through the day session.  We started off this morning with some supportive news with a flash sale of 110k tonnes of corn to Japan for the 2020/21 marketing year.  Weekly net export sales were confirmation on last week's announcements of big sales to China, with corn coming in at a whopping 4.482 million tonnes sold.  Sales to China accounted for over 86% of the total corn sales for the week ending 3/18/21.  Soybean sales were on the low end of expectations at 102k tonnes.  For the 2020/21 crop year, current sale bookings stand at 98% of the total for corn forecasted by the USDA and 99% for beans.  One would think the USDA would be backing themselves into a corner if they leave their carry outs and export numbers unchanged on the April WASDE report.  Overall, another day of range trade.  Simply speaking, the market was lower today because the spec funds sold.  Demand for both corn and soybeans remains steady with China continuing to buy large volumes of commodities despite reports of ASF outbreaks.  USDA announced yesterday that it will move forward with the CFAP programs (with some revisions) after President Biden brought them to halt.
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.