3/25/2021

Mar 25, 2021


3/25/2021
Trade was lower overnight and all through the day session.  We started off this morning with some supportive news with a flash sale of 110k tonnes of corn to Japan for the 2020/21 marketing year.  Weekly net export sales were confirmation on last week's announcements of big sales to China, with corn coming in at a whopping 4.482 million tonnes sold.  Sales to China accounted for over 86% of the total corn sales for the week ending 3/18/21.  Soybean sales were on the low end of expectations at 102k tonnes.  For the 2020/21 crop year, current sale bookings stand at 98% of the total for corn forecasted by the USDA and 99% for beans.  One would think the USDA would be backing themselves into a corner if they leave their carry outs and export numbers unchanged on the April WASDE report.  Overall, another day of range trade.  Simply speaking, the market was lower today because the spec funds sold.  Demand for both corn and soybeans remains steady with China continuing to buy large volumes of commodities despite reports of ASF outbreaks.  USDA announced yesterday that it will move forward with the CFAP programs (with some revisions) after President Biden brought them to halt.
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.