Grain > Commentary > 3-25-2021

3/25/2021

Mar 25, 2021

3/25/2021
Trade was lower overnight and all through the day session.  We started off this morning with some supportive news with a flash sale of 110k tonnes of corn to Japan for the 2020/21 marketing year.  Weekly net export sales were confirmation on last week's announcements of big sales to China, with corn coming in at a whopping 4.482 million tonnes sold.  Sales to China accounted for over 86% of the total corn sales for the week ending 3/18/21.  Soybean sales were on the low end of expectations at 102k tonnes.  For the 2020/21 crop year, current sale bookings stand at 98% of the total for corn forecasted by the USDA and 99% for beans.  One would think the USDA would be backing themselves into a corner if they leave their carry outs and export numbers unchanged on the April WASDE report.  Overall, another day of range trade.  Simply speaking, the market was lower today because the spec funds sold.  Demand for both corn and soybeans remains steady with China continuing to buy large volumes of commodities despite reports of ASF outbreaks.  USDA announced yesterday that it will move forward with the CFAP programs (with some revisions) after President Biden brought them to halt.
 

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.