3/23/2022

Mar 23, 2022


3/23/2022
The markets move higher in a big way overnight with trade starting to look at lower corn acres in the US for 2022 and Ukraine estimating it will plant 8.1 million acres of corn this year versus 13.3 million acres last year. Soybeans were up double digits responding to margins in the crush near $2/bushel synthetically. Corn traded 10-15 higher but conceded most of those gains and finished 2-5 cents higher on the day. Deferred month contracts for corn, including 2022 new crop deliveries, have made fresh contract highs part of their routine for the first three days this week. The May soybean contract pushed through 1700'0 and finally closed above that mark. If the market is able to support these price levels into a weekly close above 1700'0, our bull market is very much still alive (not that it was much in doubt to begin with). Acres estimates for next week’s planting intentions report continue to roll in with guesses ranges on corn from 91-94 million acres and soybeans 87.5-90 million acres. I'm going to put my personal estimate for corn at 93 million acres and soybeans at 88 million. Corn is still king. With oil rallying, ethanol margins have improved. In response, ethanol production last week increased 16,000 bpd to 1.042 million bpd. Stocks also increased 200k barrels to 26.1 million barrels total. Trade volume has improved (increased) from last week's dismal numbers but is still on the low end for the calendar year. Continue to work these sell orders. $6.25 new crop corn and $16.50 cash soybean orders filled this morning.

Classic double top in wheat very likely. Very bearish price signal.
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