3/23/2021

Mar 23, 2021


3/23/2021
Another day lacking any real fresh trading news.  Trade continues to stay range bound with any move inside of the established ranges dictated by the fund and speculator money deciding to either buy or sell.  Crude oil began rallying the day after Election Day (go figure) but has recently been in a sharp decline after setting contract highs 2 weeks ago.  Despite a 15% fall-off in futures, the increase in crude oil prices has helped improve ethanol margins.  Basis for both corn and soybeans has strengthened during the month of March with end-users bidding to lock in coverage through the spring planting season where farmer selling and hauling is seasonally idle.  We have seen good precipitation recently in Argentina, easing some of the concerns of crop failure.  In the US, drought stressed areas have been the beneficiaries of ample rain and snowfall over the past couple weeks to give this year's crop a nice start at planting.  We are still in a bull market but the number of items on the menu to feed the bull are shrinking.  The USDA's planting intentions report, set to be released on the 31st, will provide a fresh set of real fundamentals to give our market a direction and provide the best chance to break higher.
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.