3/22/2023

Mar 22, 2023


After a negative overnight session, corn rebounded on the front month with uneventful, mostly lower trade from July 23 and out.  Soybeans continued lower in very weak fashion, ending the day 18-25 cents lower.  CFTC released data from the week ending March 14 yesterday afternoon where data showed managed money had established a net short position in corn for the first time since August 2020 and a net short position in soy oil for the first time since September 2020.  The data shows funds still hold a net long position in oil seeds but they have liquidated nearly 80% of their length.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 178,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.  Weekly ethanol showed production down 17,000 barrels/day to 997k bpd and stocks off 206k barrels to 26.2 million bbls.  Holding most market spaces in check today was anticipation of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates.  The Fed announced a 25-bps rate increase which was in-line with market expectations but did acknowledge that further tightening was likely in the future.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.