3/22/2023

Mar 22, 2023


After a negative overnight session, corn rebounded on the front month with uneventful, mostly lower trade from July 23 and out.  Soybeans continued lower in very weak fashion, ending the day 18-25 cents lower.  CFTC released data from the week ending March 14 yesterday afternoon where data showed managed money had established a net short position in corn for the first time since August 2020 and a net short position in soy oil for the first time since September 2020.  The data shows funds still hold a net long position in oil seeds but they have liquidated nearly 80% of their length.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 178,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.  Weekly ethanol showed production down 17,000 barrels/day to 997k bpd and stocks off 206k barrels to 26.2 million bbls.  Holding most market spaces in check today was anticipation of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates.  The Fed announced a 25-bps rate increase which was in-line with market expectations but did acknowledge that further tightening was likely in the future.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.