3/22/2021

Mar 22, 2021


3/22/2021
Mixed trade overnight and mostly lower during the day session as we finish another day of range trade and position setting ahead of the planting intentions report and March 1 stocks report.  Estimates for the USDA's planting intentions report have been generally the same with estimated corn acres pushing the upper end of the threshold and bean acres coming in short.  The weekly export inspections were encouraging, with corn coming in big for the second week in a row at 1.962 million tonnes.  Soybean inspections were at the upper end of estimates at 489k tonnes.  Wheat inspections were 648k tonnes and was above the top estimate for the second consecutive week.  Big news today was the Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern railroads agreed to combine, creating the first US-Mexico-Canada rail network and creating a new single-line offering for international rail freight.  To review, overall, our old crop corn futures are still a premium compared to the current USDA carryout, trade is expecting the carryout to be lowered to a 1.2-1.3 number, where we are trading currently is a nice a number to sell into.  Glacial Plains is currently offering free price later on new deliveries of corn, pricing deadline is October 13, 2021.
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.