Grain > Commentary > 3-22-2021

3/22/2021

Mar 22, 2021

3/22/2021
Mixed trade overnight and mostly lower during the day session as we finish another day of range trade and position setting ahead of the planting intentions report and March 1 stocks report.  Estimates for the USDA's planting intentions report have been generally the same with estimated corn acres pushing the upper end of the threshold and bean acres coming in short.  The weekly export inspections were encouraging, with corn coming in big for the second week in a row at 1.962 million tonnes.  Soybean inspections were at the upper end of estimates at 489k tonnes.  Wheat inspections were 648k tonnes and was above the top estimate for the second consecutive week.  Big news today was the Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern railroads agreed to combine, creating the first US-Mexico-Canada rail network and creating a new single-line offering for international rail freight.  To review, overall, our old crop corn futures are still a premium compared to the current USDA carryout, trade is expecting the carryout to be lowered to a 1.2-1.3 number, where we are trading currently is a nice a number to sell into.  Glacial Plains is currently offering free price later on new deliveries of corn, pricing deadline is October 13, 2021.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.