Grain > Commentary > 3-22-2021

3/22/2021

Mar 22, 2021

3/22/2021
Mixed trade overnight and mostly lower during the day session as we finish another day of range trade and position setting ahead of the planting intentions report and March 1 stocks report.  Estimates for the USDA's planting intentions report have been generally the same with estimated corn acres pushing the upper end of the threshold and bean acres coming in short.  The weekly export inspections were encouraging, with corn coming in big for the second week in a row at 1.962 million tonnes.  Soybean inspections were at the upper end of estimates at 489k tonnes.  Wheat inspections were 648k tonnes and was above the top estimate for the second consecutive week.  Big news today was the Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern railroads agreed to combine, creating the first US-Mexico-Canada rail network and creating a new single-line offering for international rail freight.  To review, overall, our old crop corn futures are still a premium compared to the current USDA carryout, trade is expecting the carryout to be lowered to a 1.2-1.3 number, where we are trading currently is a nice a number to sell into.  Glacial Plains is currently offering free price later on new deliveries of corn, pricing deadline is October 13, 2021.
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.