Grain > Commentary > 3-21-2024

3/21/2024

Mar 21, 2024

Grains popped big just after the overnight session opened.  Corn and soybeans chased to fresh highs for the move but quickly retreated.  Trade managed to hold on to some okay gains of 1-2 cents in corn and wheat and 2-4 cents in soybeans but were all well off of their highs.  A close higher of any kind after seeing that type of sell-off is an accomplishment.  We were also very close to hitting some pre-acres report price targets last night and the price action we experienced today is a prime example of why sell orders need to be working.  Given current Murdock basis: $4.05-4.10 cash corn, new crop corn at $4.25 or a Dec HTA between 480 and 485 futures.  Cash soybeans at $11.50-11.60, new crop soybeans at $11.50-11.70 or a Nov HTA between 1220-1240.  Weekly net export sales were mid-range for corn and soybeans with 1.186 mln tonnes of corn sold and 494k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  As expected, wheat was a net cancellation of 110k tonnes.

Read More News

2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.