3/21/2022

Mar 21, 2022


3/21/2022
A slow start at the overnight open turned into a grind higher throughout the session.  Daily highs were set around mid-day and faded lightly from there into the close.  Markets were off at the end of last week following what looked to be a progress in peace between Ukraine and Russia but the fight is raging on and so are our markets.  We have the opportunity again at some big numbers for cash and new crop corn and soybeans and if you missed out at these levels a couple weeks back, we recommend you get sell orders working to grab these values this time around.  South American weather was our first big premium priced into our futures followed by the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia.  The prolonged dryness in Brazil allowed them to sweep through their first harvest quickly and plant their second crop almost entirely in the ideal window.  The unknown is still U.S. weather but South American weather can only be viewed as bearish at this point.  The extended outlook shows above average precipitation in the U.S. to begin April.  The armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia is an extreme wild card with anything possible.  Tomorrow might see an end to it all or the start of something even bigger.  Anyone trying guess where we are heading is doing simply that: guessing.  The Canadian-Pacific railway workers were locked out beginning today after no agreement was reached between management and the union.  Fertilizer and grain shipments could be severely affected if they are unable to compromise.

December corn blasted its way to new contract highs today. New crop deliveries now have a small cushion above the $6 level
corn-chart.jpg
May soybeans traded through the 1700’0 mark and failed to hold again but did post its highest daily close on the contract today.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.