3/21/2022

Mar 21, 2022


3/21/2022
A slow start at the overnight open turned into a grind higher throughout the session.  Daily highs were set around mid-day and faded lightly from there into the close.  Markets were off at the end of last week following what looked to be a progress in peace between Ukraine and Russia but the fight is raging on and so are our markets.  We have the opportunity again at some big numbers for cash and new crop corn and soybeans and if you missed out at these levels a couple weeks back, we recommend you get sell orders working to grab these values this time around.  South American weather was our first big premium priced into our futures followed by the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia.  The prolonged dryness in Brazil allowed them to sweep through their first harvest quickly and plant their second crop almost entirely in the ideal window.  The unknown is still U.S. weather but South American weather can only be viewed as bearish at this point.  The extended outlook shows above average precipitation in the U.S. to begin April.  The armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia is an extreme wild card with anything possible.  Tomorrow might see an end to it all or the start of something even bigger.  Anyone trying guess where we are heading is doing simply that: guessing.  The Canadian-Pacific railway workers were locked out beginning today after no agreement was reached between management and the union.  Fertilizer and grain shipments could be severely affected if they are unable to compromise.

December corn blasted its way to new contract highs today. New crop deliveries now have a small cushion above the $6 level
corn-chart.jpg
May soybeans traded through the 1700’0 mark and failed to hold again but did post its highest daily close on the contract today.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.