3/20/2024

Corn and soybeans were adrift in slightly lower trade an dall was quiet and sluggish before finally turning higher around midday. The soy complex as a whole lead the way with soybeans firing off nice gains of 19-24 cents, meal was $7-8 higher, and soy oil was up in the 80 cent range. A poor showing in wheat did not allow corn to capitalize fully off of the strength in soy and was in the red until the final hour of the session. Corn finished fractionally lower on the front month and ranged from unchanged to 2 cents higher further out. Argentina is important when it comes to soybean meal exports and the persistent dryness in the country must be paid attention to. Combined this with the managed money short position, it could surely be a catalyst for a rally across soy. The USDA also confirmed a new crop soybean sale this morning of 120,000 for delivery to unknown during the 2024/2025 marketing year. The weekly ethanol report showed a production increase of 22,000 barrels/day to 1.046 mln bpd. Stocks were up 200k barrels to 26.0 million barrels.

A fantastic leg higher in November soybeans today. After taking out the 50-day moving average last week, Nov 24 soybeans traded and closed above the 1200’0 handle for the first time since late January. The area between the 100-day moving average and the 50% retracement to our fall high becomes an easy technical target and not a bad spot to get some soybeans priced off the combine for this fall (around $11.50) especially if we can capture that before next week’s big report.