3/20/2023

Mar 20, 2023


After some measurable rains in Argentina over the weekend, opening calls were lower for Sunday night.  May contracts traded 9 cents lower for corn and 14 cents lower for soybeans.  November soybeans traded below the $13 handle for the first time since early August last year.  Soybeans ended mixed with gains on the front end, May traded steady 8-9 higher from mid-day into the close.  Corn struggled to follow but was able to close only 1-2 cents down on the day.  Weekly export inspections are finally beginning to pop higher for corn with 1.189 mln tonnes shipped last week.  Soybeans showed a bit of recovery after some slow weeks with 717k tonnes shipped.  A blizzard on Friday, the official start of Spring today, and the planting intentions report next week; just like that the year will already be 1/4 done with and the market will be looking to see how quick (or slow) farmers will be able to plant and it seems like the market always forgets that the American farmer plants faster every year.  Have orders working and be ready to make sales if we get a delayed planting rally!  Values near $6.45 cash corn, $5.45 new crop corn, $14.60 cash soybeans, and $13.00 new crop beans should be paid attention to!

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.