3/19/2024

Mar 19, 2024


After corn and soybeans were lower on Monday, Tuesday's session featured some very stable trade with trading ranges of 5 cents in corn and 10 cents in soybeans. Corn finished 1-3 higher while soybeans were mixed from 2 higher to 2 lower. Weekly export inspections for corn were up nearly 3 million bushels from the previous week. Corn shipment pace now has a 34-million-bushel cushion over the USDA target and this surplus should continue to grow as corn shipments peak sometime in the next 7-10 weeks before the seasonal fall off. Soybean inspections were down from the previous week but continue to build momentum on their pace to meet the USDA export target, swinging from 2 million bushels short to a 6-million-bushel surplus. Markets have stabilized and found some good general support on some serious dry conditions in Argentina and the U.S. early spring now looking like it will be delayed to a more traditional arrival. Our next great marketing opportunity will be next week with the annual planting intentions report.

A really nice close above the 50-day moving average for December corn today. This contract has also put together a solid trend channel higher since setting our major low in February. I like HTA’s and new crop sales both anywhere in between 480-485 futures going into next week’s planting intentions report.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.