3/19/2024

Mar 19, 2024


After corn and soybeans were lower on Monday, Tuesday's session featured some very stable trade with trading ranges of 5 cents in corn and 10 cents in soybeans. Corn finished 1-3 higher while soybeans were mixed from 2 higher to 2 lower. Weekly export inspections for corn were up nearly 3 million bushels from the previous week. Corn shipment pace now has a 34-million-bushel cushion over the USDA target and this surplus should continue to grow as corn shipments peak sometime in the next 7-10 weeks before the seasonal fall off. Soybean inspections were down from the previous week but continue to build momentum on their pace to meet the USDA export target, swinging from 2 million bushels short to a 6-million-bushel surplus. Markets have stabilized and found some good general support on some serious dry conditions in Argentina and the U.S. early spring now looking like it will be delayed to a more traditional arrival. Our next great marketing opportunity will be next week with the annual planting intentions report.

A really nice close above the 50-day moving average for December corn today. This contract has also put together a solid trend channel higher since setting our major low in February. I like HTA’s and new crop sales both anywhere in between 480-485 futures going into next week’s planting intentions report.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.