3/18/2022

Mar 18, 2022


3/18/2022
Volatility continues to wind down in what was likely the lightest trading volume day we've had thus far in 2022.  Corn traded a 10-15 cent range and soybeans 15-35 cents to finish the week in mixed fashion but relatively close to unchanged.  Trade all week was choppy and sideways as the market action did not necessarily reflect any news headlines or fresh fundamentals as both were very limited other than routine reports.  The geo-political climate appears to be more important than actual cash grain trade on our markets.  Anything involving Ukraine and Russia has been traded 100x one way or another at this point.  The market remains fluid with the situation but has become numb to the ever-changing headlines revolving around it.  It seems as though China now wants to get involved and grab some attention away for themselves.  If the U.S. were to impose any type of sanctions on China as a direct result, it would likely be unfriendly for our grains and proteins.  There's not a good example in history of these sanctions actually doing any good.  They never hurt countries, just the people inside their borders.  Cash grain weekly closes: cash corn down 14 cents and new crop corn down 2 cents, cash soybeans are 11 cents lower on the week and new crop soybeans 20 cents lower.  There are a lot of fundamentals for this market to digest over the next couple of weeks with the grain stocks and planting intentions reports at the end of the month and another round of WASDE numbers the following week.outlook.jpg

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.