3/18/2022

Mar 18, 2022


3/18/2022
Volatility continues to wind down in what was likely the lightest trading volume day we've had thus far in 2022.  Corn traded a 10-15 cent range and soybeans 15-35 cents to finish the week in mixed fashion but relatively close to unchanged.  Trade all week was choppy and sideways as the market action did not necessarily reflect any news headlines or fresh fundamentals as both were very limited other than routine reports.  The geo-political climate appears to be more important than actual cash grain trade on our markets.  Anything involving Ukraine and Russia has been traded 100x one way or another at this point.  The market remains fluid with the situation but has become numb to the ever-changing headlines revolving around it.  It seems as though China now wants to get involved and grab some attention away for themselves.  If the U.S. were to impose any type of sanctions on China as a direct result, it would likely be unfriendly for our grains and proteins.  There's not a good example in history of these sanctions actually doing any good.  They never hurt countries, just the people inside their borders.  Cash grain weekly closes: cash corn down 14 cents and new crop corn down 2 cents, cash soybeans are 11 cents lower on the week and new crop soybeans 20 cents lower.  There are a lot of fundamentals for this market to digest over the next couple of weeks with the grain stocks and planting intentions reports at the end of the month and another round of WASDE numbers the following week.outlook.jpg

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.