3/18/2022

Mar 18, 2022


3/18/2022
Volatility continues to wind down in what was likely the lightest trading volume day we've had thus far in 2022.  Corn traded a 10-15 cent range and soybeans 15-35 cents to finish the week in mixed fashion but relatively close to unchanged.  Trade all week was choppy and sideways as the market action did not necessarily reflect any news headlines or fresh fundamentals as both were very limited other than routine reports.  The geo-political climate appears to be more important than actual cash grain trade on our markets.  Anything involving Ukraine and Russia has been traded 100x one way or another at this point.  The market remains fluid with the situation but has become numb to the ever-changing headlines revolving around it.  It seems as though China now wants to get involved and grab some attention away for themselves.  If the U.S. were to impose any type of sanctions on China as a direct result, it would likely be unfriendly for our grains and proteins.  There's not a good example in history of these sanctions actually doing any good.  They never hurt countries, just the people inside their borders.  Cash grain weekly closes: cash corn down 14 cents and new crop corn down 2 cents, cash soybeans are 11 cents lower on the week and new crop soybeans 20 cents lower.  There are a lot of fundamentals for this market to digest over the next couple of weeks with the grain stocks and planting intentions reports at the end of the month and another round of WASDE numbers the following week.outlook.jpg

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.