3/18/2021

Mar 18, 2021


3/18/2021
Another sale announcement with China purchasing 696,600 tonnes of corn for 2020/2021, bringing the three-day total to 121 million bushels but it wasn't enough to spark buying interest from the fund and spec money.  Commodity markets all around were strongly lower today, with the stand-out being crude oil trading 7.5% lower, pushing it below $60/bbl for the first time in two weeks.  The recent precipitation in US growing regions over the past week was realized on the updated USDA drought monitor released today.  Along with some rain in Argentina, this applied some sell pressure to the grains.  It seems strange that we've had 3 big grain sales to our biggest export customer this week and the market has reacted negatively.  Net export sales for the week were above expectations for corn at 986k tonnes.  Bean sales were on target at 202k tonnes but were also evidence that Brazil is becoming the preferred source for soybeans.  Today's trade volume was some of the lightest we have seen this calendar year and, with the market friendly news, it's tough to agree that the board needed to be beaten up this bad in one day.  May beans closed the day at 1392'2, looking to test support of the 50-day moving average at 1388'2.
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.