Grain > Commentary > 3-17-2023

3/17/2023

Mar 17, 2023

Corn and soybeans traded higher in steady fashion during the overnight session but gave back all gains immediately following the morning break.  Corn came back just enough to finish 1-2 cents higher and soybeans recovered roughly 5 cents off of their lows late in the day.  The USDA announced more corn sales to China this morning with 191k tonnes confirmed as a follow-up to yesterday's flash sale of 641k tonnes.  That's a 4-day total of 83 million bushels exclusively to China all for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Export net sales totals last week were within trade expectations but encouraging.  Corn sales netted 1.236 mln tonnes and soybeans came in at 665k tonnes.  May 23 corn futures go into the weekend nearly 30 cents above their 7-month low set last week, Dec 23 corn has managed to gain back only 10 cents.  There has not been much discussion about the Prospective Plantings report due out two weeks from today but early estimates have been around 92 million acres for corn.  Balance sheets show the available grain supply growing going into the 2024 but we do not have much room for error.

outlook.pngoutlook2.png

Read More News

9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.