Grain > Commentary > 3-17-2021

3/17/2021

Mar 17, 2021

3/17/2021
May corn traded firmly 1-2 higher overnight and through the day session.  This morning, the USDA announced another sale to China of 1.224 mln tonnes of corn, or 48.2 million bushels, for the 2020/2021 marketing year.  The inverse in the May and July corn futures has increased by roughly 5 cents this week, to 15, after two large corn sale announcements on consecutive days that total 93.7 million bushels.  Some analysts think these sales may be more of a goodwill gesture and cash hedge leading up to China's first face-to-face meeting with President Biden tomorrow.  Feels like we may have enough fresh bullish news to keep us in the top end of rangebound.  Soybeans continue to be pressured on some ASF concerns in China.  The large daily trading ranges in soybeans have narrowed this week from about 25 cents down to 13.  There hasn't been much to move the needle in terms of the soybean market recently but it seems as though conditions in South America have improved somewhat.  As a whole, Brazil is approximately 50% harvested and continues to increase their pace of harvest.  Argentina has received some rain but may not be enough to benefit the crop. 
 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.