Grain > Commentary > 3-17-2021

3/17/2021

Mar 17, 2021

3/17/2021
May corn traded firmly 1-2 higher overnight and through the day session.  This morning, the USDA announced another sale to China of 1.224 mln tonnes of corn, or 48.2 million bushels, for the 2020/2021 marketing year.  The inverse in the May and July corn futures has increased by roughly 5 cents this week, to 15, after two large corn sale announcements on consecutive days that total 93.7 million bushels.  Some analysts think these sales may be more of a goodwill gesture and cash hedge leading up to China's first face-to-face meeting with President Biden tomorrow.  Feels like we may have enough fresh bullish news to keep us in the top end of rangebound.  Soybeans continue to be pressured on some ASF concerns in China.  The large daily trading ranges in soybeans have narrowed this week from about 25 cents down to 13.  There hasn't been much to move the needle in terms of the soybean market recently but it seems as though conditions in South America have improved somewhat.  As a whole, Brazil is approximately 50% harvested and continues to increase their pace of harvest.  Argentina has received some rain but may not be enough to benefit the crop. 
 

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8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.