3/17/2021

Mar 17, 2021


3/17/2021
May corn traded firmly 1-2 higher overnight and through the day session.  This morning, the USDA announced another sale to China of 1.224 mln tonnes of corn, or 48.2 million bushels, for the 2020/2021 marketing year.  The inverse in the May and July corn futures has increased by roughly 5 cents this week, to 15, after two large corn sale announcements on consecutive days that total 93.7 million bushels.  Some analysts think these sales may be more of a goodwill gesture and cash hedge leading up to China's first face-to-face meeting with President Biden tomorrow.  Feels like we may have enough fresh bullish news to keep us in the top end of rangebound.  Soybeans continue to be pressured on some ASF concerns in China.  The large daily trading ranges in soybeans have narrowed this week from about 25 cents down to 13.  There hasn't been much to move the needle in terms of the soybean market recently but it seems as though conditions in South America have improved somewhat.  As a whole, Brazil is approximately 50% harvested and continues to increase their pace of harvest.  Argentina has received some rain but may not be enough to benefit the crop. 
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.