3/16/2021

Mar 16, 2021


3/16/2021
Overnight, corn traded 4-5 cent range and was mostly higher and soybeans were mixed while trade shrugged off the low NOPA crush numbers from yesterday.  After a very supportive export sales report yesterday, the USDA announced a flash sale this morning of 1.156 million tonnes of corn sold to China for the 2020/2021 marketing year.  That's 45.5 million bushels and the first sale involving China that we've seen in 6 weeks.  Recently, there's been rising concern over China's actual feedstuff demand stemming from news on new outbreaks of African Swine Fever, today's flash sale should ease some of those concerns.  China continues to sell grain out of its state reserves, selling 2.26 mln tonnes of wheat at the average price of about $9.98 USD/bu last week.  I'll be the first to admit that seeing a large sale to China had me expecting corn to test its nearest spot of resistance on the chart at 559'2.  Price action was very choppy today with early gains given up to weaker trade, only to meet the money on the buying side and take us to a firmly higher finish over the final 2 hours of trade.  The May corn contract has added 21 cents on 4 consecutive higher closes, sending us up sharply to the top end of our established trading range.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.