3/16/2021

Mar 16, 2021


3/16/2021
Overnight, corn traded 4-5 cent range and was mostly higher and soybeans were mixed while trade shrugged off the low NOPA crush numbers from yesterday.  After a very supportive export sales report yesterday, the USDA announced a flash sale this morning of 1.156 million tonnes of corn sold to China for the 2020/2021 marketing year.  That's 45.5 million bushels and the first sale involving China that we've seen in 6 weeks.  Recently, there's been rising concern over China's actual feedstuff demand stemming from news on new outbreaks of African Swine Fever, today's flash sale should ease some of those concerns.  China continues to sell grain out of its state reserves, selling 2.26 mln tonnes of wheat at the average price of about $9.98 USD/bu last week.  I'll be the first to admit that seeing a large sale to China had me expecting corn to test its nearest spot of resistance on the chart at 559'2.  Price action was very choppy today with early gains given up to weaker trade, only to meet the money on the buying side and take us to a firmly higher finish over the final 2 hours of trade.  The May corn contract has added 21 cents on 4 consecutive higher closes, sending us up sharply to the top end of our established trading range.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.