Grain > Commentary > 3-15-2024

3/15/2024

Mar 15, 2024

It looked like it was going to be an uneventful session to the end the week.  Corn was hanging around 1 higher and soybeans recovered off of their lows and were trading steady down 1-2 cents.  A buying surge in the last 20 minutes pushed corn and soybeans to go into the weekend 2-3 cents higher.  It was just enough to get May corn back above its 10-day moving average and May soybeans will start next week looking to make a push through $12.  The USDA made a corn sale announcement for the second day in a row.  Today's sale was for 125,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  We also had the NOPA Crush report for February.  The total of 186.194 mln bushels crushed was a record for the month of February and up 12.6% from February 2023.  This was well above the average trade guess of 178.06 mln bu.  Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.69 bln lbs, down 6.6% from a year ago but above the trade guess of 1.591 bln.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.