3/15/2023

Mar 15, 2023


3/15/2023
Corn started higher with May and July corn putting gaps on the charts at the open of overnight trade but quickly traded back to unchanged. The remainder of the session was relatively quiet. Corn stayed within a 10-cent range and 20 cents caught a large majority of the soybean action on Wednesday. Yesterday's large corn export sale announcement was followed up by another confirmation from the USDA this morning with 667,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year. It appears China may now be looking for a break in soybean meal prices with a news headline about a surge in African Swine Fever on Chinese hog farms hitting the wire just a couple hours after. Weekly ethanol showed in increase in production of 4,000 barrels/day to 1.014 million bpd and stocks up 1.074 million barrels to 26.4 mln bbls. The grain sector traded steady today compared to outside market places. Bank failures have been the top news stories lately and Wall Street has been in herd selling mode. Crude oil traded $5/bbl lower, printing 15-month lows and the DOW was down as much as 700 points during the day.

May soybeans are trying to establish support at the 100-day moving average. Trade managed to finish the day above this support level after spending most of the morning below it.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.