3/15/2023

Mar 15, 2023


3/15/2023
Corn started higher with May and July corn putting gaps on the charts at the open of overnight trade but quickly traded back to unchanged. The remainder of the session was relatively quiet. Corn stayed within a 10-cent range and 20 cents caught a large majority of the soybean action on Wednesday. Yesterday's large corn export sale announcement was followed up by another confirmation from the USDA this morning with 667,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year. It appears China may now be looking for a break in soybean meal prices with a news headline about a surge in African Swine Fever on Chinese hog farms hitting the wire just a couple hours after. Weekly ethanol showed in increase in production of 4,000 barrels/day to 1.014 million bpd and stocks up 1.074 million barrels to 26.4 mln bbls. The grain sector traded steady today compared to outside market places. Bank failures have been the top news stories lately and Wall Street has been in herd selling mode. Crude oil traded $5/bbl lower, printing 15-month lows and the DOW was down as much as 700 points during the day.

May soybeans are trying to establish support at the 100-day moving average. Trade managed to finish the day above this support level after spending most of the morning below it.
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.