3/15/2023

Mar 15, 2023


3/15/2023
Corn started higher with May and July corn putting gaps on the charts at the open of overnight trade but quickly traded back to unchanged. The remainder of the session was relatively quiet. Corn stayed within a 10-cent range and 20 cents caught a large majority of the soybean action on Wednesday. Yesterday's large corn export sale announcement was followed up by another confirmation from the USDA this morning with 667,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year. It appears China may now be looking for a break in soybean meal prices with a news headline about a surge in African Swine Fever on Chinese hog farms hitting the wire just a couple hours after. Weekly ethanol showed in increase in production of 4,000 barrels/day to 1.014 million bpd and stocks up 1.074 million barrels to 26.4 mln bbls. The grain sector traded steady today compared to outside market places. Bank failures have been the top news stories lately and Wall Street has been in herd selling mode. Crude oil traded $5/bbl lower, printing 15-month lows and the DOW was down as much as 700 points during the day.

May soybeans are trying to establish support at the 100-day moving average. Trade managed to finish the day above this support level after spending most of the morning below it.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.