3/15/2022

Mar 15, 2022


3/15/2022
Trade was virtually lower throughout the entire day but corn and soybeans managed to finish 10-20 cents above their lows.  Wheat posted big double-digit gains in all classes as it continues to digest the Russia/Ukraine situation.  Fresh news was very limited today with no 8 a.m. sales announcements from the USDA or other official reports.  NOPA did put out their February crush numbers and the 165.057 million bushels crushed was right on target with trade expectations.  The only surprise in the report was soy oil stocks coming in at their highest levels since April 2020 at 2.059 billion pounds, above the 1.985 bln lbs average guess.  Energy weighed on grain futures today, as well, with crude now trading a few dollars back under the $100/barrel level and looking like it may close the day out below the century mark for the first time since February 28, finding a comfortable spot almost directly on trend line.  Processors and end-users appear to still be gaining coverage through spring with basis settling sideways and most places showing a cash carry into summer.  We feel confident in saying the top is in for now but we still have planting intentions and U.S. weather to be priced into the market.  A pull back in futures would line up with seasonal trends.  A weather scare, trade embargo, or a surprise shock in demand is always possible.  For now, volatility needs to come down and trade needs to consolidate so we can find some true price discovery with this market.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.