Mar 15, 2022

Trade was virtually lower throughout the entire day but corn and soybeans managed to finish 10-20 cents above their lows.  Wheat posted big double-digit gains in all classes as it continues to digest the Russia/Ukraine situation.  Fresh news was very limited today with no 8 a.m. sales announcements from the USDA or other official reports.  NOPA did put out their February crush numbers and the 165.057 million bushels crushed was right on target with trade expectations.  The only surprise in the report was soy oil stocks coming in at their highest levels since April 2020 at 2.059 billion pounds, above the 1.985 bln lbs average guess.  Energy weighed on grain futures today, as well, with crude now trading a few dollars back under the $100/barrel level and looking like it may close the day out below the century mark for the first time since February 28, finding a comfortable spot almost directly on trend line.  Processors and end-users appear to still be gaining coverage through spring with basis settling sideways and most places showing a cash carry into summer.  We feel confident in saying the top is in for now but we still have planting intentions and U.S. weather to be priced into the market.  A pull back in futures would line up with seasonal trends.  A weather scare, trade embargo, or a surprise shock in demand is always possible.  For now, volatility needs to come down and trade needs to consolidate so we can find some true price discovery with this market.

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