3/14/2023

Mar 14, 2023


3/14/2023
Overnight trade was steady in the 1-3 cents lower range for corn and soybeans. During the coffee break, the USDA confirmed the sale of 612,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year but the sale was dated as March 9. This is the first flash sale of U.S. corn exclusively to China since August 9, 2022 and the largest since April 28, 2022. Regardless, it is good to see corn sales beginning to pick up some pace. Second crop corn planting pace in Brazil is the slowest in over 10 years, tracking similar to 2021. We know the high prices over the past few years have resulted in more ground being planted and it would be interesting to know the estimated area in acres that has been planted versus those years rather than a percentage. Corn was able to immediately flip higher and trade firmly above unchanged and printed its high marks for the day going into the close. Soybeans struggled to trade higher but finally broke through late in the session, finishing mixed with the higher trade on the front end.

Trade has been eyeing the 595 gap on the corn charts following the recent sell-off. Our nearest support level is 606 and then the gap at 595.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.