3/14/2022

Corn and soybeans were higher for a portion of the trading day but finished solidly in the red.  Any fresh news is limited and we continue to re-hash the Ukraine/Russia situation and its effects on global grain movement with a lot minds thinking that Ukraine will have almost no crop to offer in 2022.  After announcing last week that they would cease all exports for the remainder of the year, Russia has been loading some wheat, followed by another announcement saying it would halt/restrict exports, then again announcing certain licenses would be honored for exporting.  Wheat trade seemed uneasy with the inconsistency in the headlines.  Export inspections were within target for corn and soybeans last week with 1.145 million tonnes of corn and 773k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Corn shipments to date are 61 million bushels short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target, a big jump from the 97 million bushels short the previous week.  Several analysts expecting USDA corn export figures to increase again at some point this season but shipping everything will be difficult to accomplish logistically.  Soybean shipment pace to date is currently 56 million bushels short of the pace needed to reach the USDA target versus 60 million bushels the week prior.  Reuters reported today that an estimated 94% of Brazil's second crop corn was planted in the ideal window, a 20% increase from last year.  A good indication of a fast soybean harvest with few issues.

After going vertical for the better part of 2 weeks, May corn has settled into a consolidation pattern, trading in the 730-760 range.  Trade is in the process of determining its next direction



The soybeans charts are setting up bull pennants with resistance on the May contract at 1700 and consistently higher lows on the daily chart.  Failure to close above 1700’0 in the near future likely sees a pull back to the 1550’0-1600’0 range.