3/13/2024

Mar 13, 2024


Corn finishes fractionally mixed and soybeans around 1 cent mixed, as well, after both test the high and low side on Wednesday. We weren't able to follow-through on yesterday's strength in soybeans but our daily range was one of the narrowest we've seen in a while. Also, volume was very light compared to the past two weeks. The market has put together a decent rally since we bounced off a significant low on February 26 and now is the time to seriously consider getting caught up on old crop sales and getting your foot in the door with a good shot of new crop sales, as well. Weekly ethanol data showed production and stocks both off from the prior week with production decreasing by 33,000 barrels/day to 1.024 mln bpd and stocks off 300k barrels to 25.8 mln bbls.

December 24 corn: Trade has attempted to break through Dec’s 50-day moving average the past two days but has not been able to hold. There’s been a solid uptrend develop over the past two weeks but trade will need something fresh if we want to sustain this rally further. The 50-day MA is an obvious hurdle but I am also watching the 480’0 area where we traded for a few weeks in late Jan-early Feb.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.