3/13/2024

Mar 13, 2024


Corn finishes fractionally mixed and soybeans around 1 cent mixed, as well, after both test the high and low side on Wednesday. We weren't able to follow-through on yesterday's strength in soybeans but our daily range was one of the narrowest we've seen in a while. Also, volume was very light compared to the past two weeks. The market has put together a decent rally since we bounced off a significant low on February 26 and now is the time to seriously consider getting caught up on old crop sales and getting your foot in the door with a good shot of new crop sales, as well. Weekly ethanol data showed production and stocks both off from the prior week with production decreasing by 33,000 barrels/day to 1.024 mln bpd and stocks off 300k barrels to 25.8 mln bbls.

December 24 corn: Trade has attempted to break through Dec’s 50-day moving average the past two days but has not been able to hold. There’s been a solid uptrend develop over the past two weeks but trade will need something fresh if we want to sustain this rally further. The 50-day MA is an obvious hurdle but I am also watching the 480’0 area where we traded for a few weeks in late Jan-early Feb.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.