Grain > Commentary > 3-13-2023

3/13/2023

Mar 13, 2023

3/13/2023
Russia is not against an extension to the Black Sea grain deal but only for 60 days. The current deal that allows agricultural products to be exported from Ukraine's southern Black Sea ports is set to expire on March 18. Russia signaled it will be only agree to the deal if restrictions on its own exports are lifted.  The Weekly Grain Export Inspections report this morning showed 39.3 million bushels of corn inspected for export during the week ending March 9. This is slightly better than 36.9 million bushels shown last week.  Soybean export inspections totaled 22.7 million bushels compared to 20.2 million bushels the prior week. Corn futures tried to trade higher this morning, but was met with fresh selling interest. Corn futures have now fallen to their lowest level since harvest and removed nearly all risk premium. The corn complex is technically oversold but the path of least resistance in lower.  The gap at 5.95 May futures I believe is still the target on this move.  Beans feel like they want to test the 14.77 May futures lows from the 1st of the month.  

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.