3/13/2023

Mar 13, 2023


3/13/2023
Russia is not against an extension to the Black Sea grain deal but only for 60 days. The current deal that allows agricultural products to be exported from Ukraine's southern Black Sea ports is set to expire on March 18. Russia signaled it will be only agree to the deal if restrictions on its own exports are lifted.  The Weekly Grain Export Inspections report this morning showed 39.3 million bushels of corn inspected for export during the week ending March 9. This is slightly better than 36.9 million bushels shown last week.  Soybean export inspections totaled 22.7 million bushels compared to 20.2 million bushels the prior week. Corn futures tried to trade higher this morning, but was met with fresh selling interest. Corn futures have now fallen to their lowest level since harvest and removed nearly all risk premium. The corn complex is technically oversold but the path of least resistance in lower.  The gap at 5.95 May futures I believe is still the target on this move.  Beans feel like they want to test the 14.77 May futures lows from the 1st of the month.  

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.