Grain > Commentary > 3-13-2023

3/13/2023

Mar 13, 2023

3/13/2023
Russia is not against an extension to the Black Sea grain deal but only for 60 days. The current deal that allows agricultural products to be exported from Ukraine's southern Black Sea ports is set to expire on March 18. Russia signaled it will be only agree to the deal if restrictions on its own exports are lifted.  The Weekly Grain Export Inspections report this morning showed 39.3 million bushels of corn inspected for export during the week ending March 9. This is slightly better than 36.9 million bushels shown last week.  Soybean export inspections totaled 22.7 million bushels compared to 20.2 million bushels the prior week. Corn futures tried to trade higher this morning, but was met with fresh selling interest. Corn futures have now fallen to their lowest level since harvest and removed nearly all risk premium. The corn complex is technically oversold but the path of least resistance in lower.  The gap at 5.95 May futures I believe is still the target on this move.  Beans feel like they want to test the 14.77 May futures lows from the 1st of the month.  

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.