Grain > Commentary > 3-13-2023

3/13/2023

Mar 13, 2023

3/13/2023
Russia is not against an extension to the Black Sea grain deal but only for 60 days. The current deal that allows agricultural products to be exported from Ukraine's southern Black Sea ports is set to expire on March 18. Russia signaled it will be only agree to the deal if restrictions on its own exports are lifted.  The Weekly Grain Export Inspections report this morning showed 39.3 million bushels of corn inspected for export during the week ending March 9. This is slightly better than 36.9 million bushels shown last week.  Soybean export inspections totaled 22.7 million bushels compared to 20.2 million bushels the prior week. Corn futures tried to trade higher this morning, but was met with fresh selling interest. Corn futures have now fallen to their lowest level since harvest and removed nearly all risk premium. The corn complex is technically oversold but the path of least resistance in lower.  The gap at 5.95 May futures I believe is still the target on this move.  Beans feel like they want to test the 14.77 May futures lows from the 1st of the month.  

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.