Grain > Commentary > 3-12-2024

3/12/2024

Mar 12, 2024

A very positive day in the grain markets. Corn was trading 4 cents higher when it met the the expected selling at the 50-day moving average but still managed to finish unchanged on the day. Soybeans were strong for most of the day and traded up to 17 cents higher at one point. It was a bit of an up-and-down ride throughout the session but beans held on for healthy gains of 12-14 cents. Today's trade was highlighted by a fresh report from Brazil's CONAB which has been steadily shrinking their Brazil crop production forecast over the past few months. CONAB is now showing 146.9 mmt of soybeans produced versus the USDA's 155.0 mmt (-8.1, about 297 million bushels). CONAB's Brazil corn crop is forecasted at 112.7 mmt versus the USDA's 124.0 (-11.3, about 444 million bushels). Corn has now rallied as much as 37 cents and soybeans have bounced as much as 68 cents off of what is expected to some major lows on the charts. This all can change fast. Seasonal trends are expected to be a big player in this year's market and we need to have sell orders working.

Read More News

11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.