3/12/2024

Mar 12, 2024


A very positive day in the grain markets. Corn was trading 4 cents higher when it met the the expected selling at the 50-day moving average but still managed to finish unchanged on the day. Soybeans were strong for most of the day and traded up to 17 cents higher at one point. It was a bit of an up-and-down ride throughout the session but beans held on for healthy gains of 12-14 cents. Today's trade was highlighted by a fresh report from Brazil's CONAB which has been steadily shrinking their Brazil crop production forecast over the past few months. CONAB is now showing 146.9 mmt of soybeans produced versus the USDA's 155.0 mmt (-8.1, about 297 million bushels). CONAB's Brazil corn crop is forecasted at 112.7 mmt versus the USDA's 124.0 (-11.3, about 444 million bushels). Corn has now rallied as much as 37 cents and soybeans have bounced as much as 68 cents off of what is expected to some major lows on the charts. This all can change fast. Seasonal trends are expected to be a big player in this year's market and we need to have sell orders working.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.