3/12/2024

Mar 12, 2024


A very positive day in the grain markets. Corn was trading 4 cents higher when it met the the expected selling at the 50-day moving average but still managed to finish unchanged on the day. Soybeans were strong for most of the day and traded up to 17 cents higher at one point. It was a bit of an up-and-down ride throughout the session but beans held on for healthy gains of 12-14 cents. Today's trade was highlighted by a fresh report from Brazil's CONAB which has been steadily shrinking their Brazil crop production forecast over the past few months. CONAB is now showing 146.9 mmt of soybeans produced versus the USDA's 155.0 mmt (-8.1, about 297 million bushels). CONAB's Brazil corn crop is forecasted at 112.7 mmt versus the USDA's 124.0 (-11.3, about 444 million bushels). Corn has now rallied as much as 37 cents and soybeans have bounced as much as 68 cents off of what is expected to some major lows on the charts. This all can change fast. Seasonal trends are expected to be a big player in this year's market and we need to have sell orders working.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.