3/12/2021

Mar 12, 2021


3/12/2021
Overnight session was strongly lower with corn and beans relentlessly testing their closest support levels.  Despite rumors of Chinese interest in US corn, we were given no confirmation of a sale and grains failed to gather any momentum to make a move higher and spent most of the day session recovering to finish mixed.  Today's action is assumed money flow taking risk off of the table as we still look for a fresh set of fundamentals to trade and give the market direction.  China has been actively buying US ethanol which could be offering some indirect support.  Argentina crop ratings continue to drop with 17% of their corn rating good to excellent and only 6% of their beans rating good to excellent.  Their crops rated in the poor to very poor category for corn and beans are both around the 30% mark.  We continue to have a better understanding of the soybean crop status in Brazil after a string of heavy rains last week.  There does not seem to be a large amount of acre or bushel loss but the focus has changed to possible quality issues in the crop.  After setting new contract highs early in the week, soybeans traded a 68-cent range and finish 17 lower compared to last week's close.  Week to week close on corn is 6 lower after trading a 25 cent range.  Looks like another unseasonably nice weekend is in store for us, enjoy!
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.