3/12/2021

Mar 12, 2021


3/12/2021
Overnight session was strongly lower with corn and beans relentlessly testing their closest support levels.  Despite rumors of Chinese interest in US corn, we were given no confirmation of a sale and grains failed to gather any momentum to make a move higher and spent most of the day session recovering to finish mixed.  Today's action is assumed money flow taking risk off of the table as we still look for a fresh set of fundamentals to trade and give the market direction.  China has been actively buying US ethanol which could be offering some indirect support.  Argentina crop ratings continue to drop with 17% of their corn rating good to excellent and only 6% of their beans rating good to excellent.  Their crops rated in the poor to very poor category for corn and beans are both around the 30% mark.  We continue to have a better understanding of the soybean crop status in Brazil after a string of heavy rains last week.  There does not seem to be a large amount of acre or bushel loss but the focus has changed to possible quality issues in the crop.  After setting new contract highs early in the week, soybeans traded a 68-cent range and finish 17 lower compared to last week's close.  Week to week close on corn is 6 lower after trading a 25 cent range.  Looks like another unseasonably nice weekend is in store for us, enjoy!
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.