3/12/2021

Mar 12, 2021


3/12/2021
Overnight session was strongly lower with corn and beans relentlessly testing their closest support levels.  Despite rumors of Chinese interest in US corn, we were given no confirmation of a sale and grains failed to gather any momentum to make a move higher and spent most of the day session recovering to finish mixed.  Today's action is assumed money flow taking risk off of the table as we still look for a fresh set of fundamentals to trade and give the market direction.  China has been actively buying US ethanol which could be offering some indirect support.  Argentina crop ratings continue to drop with 17% of their corn rating good to excellent and only 6% of their beans rating good to excellent.  Their crops rated in the poor to very poor category for corn and beans are both around the 30% mark.  We continue to have a better understanding of the soybean crop status in Brazil after a string of heavy rains last week.  There does not seem to be a large amount of acre or bushel loss but the focus has changed to possible quality issues in the crop.  After setting new contract highs early in the week, soybeans traded a 68-cent range and finish 17 lower compared to last week's close.  Week to week close on corn is 6 lower after trading a 25 cent range.  Looks like another unseasonably nice weekend is in store for us, enjoy!
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.