Grain > Commentary > 3-10-2021

3/10/2021

Mar 10, 2021

3/10/2021
Largely weaker trade on smaller volume in both sessions as long liquidation continued following what some see as an underwhelming WASDE report yesterday. Today's trade is mostly a continuance from the past 5 weeks; big daily ranges in both corn and beans working inside the larger, established ranges. Ethanol production for the week ending March 5, 2021 returned to pre-winter storm levels at 938,000 barrels/day. Ethanol usage for the week was also one of the best over the past 12 months. Basis has been firming consistently since mid-January even with ethanol production somewhat side-lined. The recent rally in crude oil has made ethanol more attractive and it would not take a very big improvement in ethanol margins to see plants ramp up production and make a push for corn coverage and, as a result, further strengthening basis in the western corn belt. The biggest news today was the Rosario Grain Exchange cutting the Argentina soybean production forecast from 49 million tonnes down to 45 million tonnes (146.6 million bushels). Given the USDA left their Argentina soybean production unchanged at 47.5 million tonnes in the report yesterday, the market did not react to this information at all. Despite the wind and cold, I am thankful for the Mother Nature bringing us some much needed moisture today.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.