Grain > Commentary > 3-10-2021

3/10/2021

Mar 10, 2021

3/10/2021
Largely weaker trade on smaller volume in both sessions as long liquidation continued following what some see as an underwhelming WASDE report yesterday. Today's trade is mostly a continuance from the past 5 weeks; big daily ranges in both corn and beans working inside the larger, established ranges. Ethanol production for the week ending March 5, 2021 returned to pre-winter storm levels at 938,000 barrels/day. Ethanol usage for the week was also one of the best over the past 12 months. Basis has been firming consistently since mid-January even with ethanol production somewhat side-lined. The recent rally in crude oil has made ethanol more attractive and it would not take a very big improvement in ethanol margins to see plants ramp up production and make a push for corn coverage and, as a result, further strengthening basis in the western corn belt. The biggest news today was the Rosario Grain Exchange cutting the Argentina soybean production forecast from 49 million tonnes down to 45 million tonnes (146.6 million bushels). Given the USDA left their Argentina soybean production unchanged at 47.5 million tonnes in the report yesterday, the market did not react to this information at all. Despite the wind and cold, I am thankful for the Mother Nature bringing us some much needed moisture today.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.