Grain > Commentary > 3-1-2022

3/1/2022

Mar 01, 2022

3/1/2022
The market made another run higher today with corn bursting through, and closing well above, the 700 level and soybeans once again knocking on the door of 1700 futures.  Most commodity futures are currently inverted with heavy risk premiums on the front end.  Trade is already beginning to speculate the issues that may come with Ukrainian ag production this year.  All of the ports on the Black Sea are currently shut down and some also damaged meaning no exports are currently exiting the country as a result of the on-going Russian military invasion.  The biggest question is "What will Ukrainian farmers do?"  No Ukrainian market means no incentive to plant a Ukrainian crop.  May corn finished limit higher for the second consecutive day but in this atmosphere, no one knows for sure what tomorrow may bring.  $7.00 corn and $16 beans are what I consider good bench mark cash price levels but we definitely do not want to sell out of old crop here.  The US corn export market is perking up a bit and showing some signs of life as users look to secure coverage on a global scale.  The rumor mill is also pumping out plenty of talk about new sales for US 2021 crop soybeans.  Combining inflation, war, and a crop shortage in South America, this market is a whole new breed of animal that we won't soon forget and something that we likely reference in the future.  At 8 a.m., the USDA announced 264,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2022/23 marketing year.

plot.jpg

Read More News

5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.