3/1/2022

Mar 01, 2022


3/1/2022
The market made another run higher today with corn bursting through, and closing well above, the 700 level and soybeans once again knocking on the door of 1700 futures.  Most commodity futures are currently inverted with heavy risk premiums on the front end.  Trade is already beginning to speculate the issues that may come with Ukrainian ag production this year.  All of the ports on the Black Sea are currently shut down and some also damaged meaning no exports are currently exiting the country as a result of the on-going Russian military invasion.  The biggest question is "What will Ukrainian farmers do?"  No Ukrainian market means no incentive to plant a Ukrainian crop.  May corn finished limit higher for the second consecutive day but in this atmosphere, no one knows for sure what tomorrow may bring.  $7.00 corn and $16 beans are what I consider good bench mark cash price levels but we definitely do not want to sell out of old crop here.  The US corn export market is perking up a bit and showing some signs of life as users look to secure coverage on a global scale.  The rumor mill is also pumping out plenty of talk about new sales for US 2021 crop soybeans.  Combining inflation, war, and a crop shortage in South America, this market is a whole new breed of animal that we won't soon forget and something that we likely reference in the future.  At 8 a.m., the USDA announced 264,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2022/23 marketing year.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.