Grain > Commentary > 2-9-2024

2/9/2024

Feb 09, 2024

It was further rinse-and-repeat for corn and soybeans on Friday, ending the week on a firmly lower note.  We had a sign of some life in the markets just after the 8:30 am re-open with corn trading to 4 higher and soybeans 5 higher but quickly reversed the other way.  Corn closed just off of fresh lows while soybeans made a meager attempt to climb away from them.  After yesterday's huge data dump, today was quiet for any new headlines or stories.  Managed money and funds continue to push towards larger net-short positions and, as a total, sit at the second largest all-time short position in corn and third largest all-time in soybeans.  Since we started our dramatic sell off at the turn of the calendar to 2024, the market has tried a few times to turn itself around.  Trade seems to be full of the anticipation of the funds unloading but what we are still lacking is the spark necessary to begin that chain reaction.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.