2/9/2024

Feb 09, 2024


It was further rinse-and-repeat for corn and soybeans on Friday, ending the week on a firmly lower note.  We had a sign of some life in the markets just after the 8:30 am re-open with corn trading to 4 higher and soybeans 5 higher but quickly reversed the other way.  Corn closed just off of fresh lows while soybeans made a meager attempt to climb away from them.  After yesterday's huge data dump, today was quiet for any new headlines or stories.  Managed money and funds continue to push towards larger net-short positions and, as a total, sit at the second largest all-time short position in corn and third largest all-time in soybeans.  Since we started our dramatic sell off at the turn of the calendar to 2024, the market has tried a few times to turn itself around.  Trade seems to be full of the anticipation of the funds unloading but what we are still lacking is the spark necessary to begin that chain reaction.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.