2/9/2024

Feb 09, 2024


It was further rinse-and-repeat for corn and soybeans on Friday, ending the week on a firmly lower note.  We had a sign of some life in the markets just after the 8:30 am re-open with corn trading to 4 higher and soybeans 5 higher but quickly reversed the other way.  Corn closed just off of fresh lows while soybeans made a meager attempt to climb away from them.  After yesterday's huge data dump, today was quiet for any new headlines or stories.  Managed money and funds continue to push towards larger net-short positions and, as a total, sit at the second largest all-time short position in corn and third largest all-time in soybeans.  Since we started our dramatic sell off at the turn of the calendar to 2024, the market has tried a few times to turn itself around.  Trade seems to be full of the anticipation of the funds unloading but what we are still lacking is the spark necessary to begin that chain reaction.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.