2/9/2024

Feb 09, 2024


It was further rinse-and-repeat for corn and soybeans on Friday, ending the week on a firmly lower note.  We had a sign of some life in the markets just after the 8:30 am re-open with corn trading to 4 higher and soybeans 5 higher but quickly reversed the other way.  Corn closed just off of fresh lows while soybeans made a meager attempt to climb away from them.  After yesterday's huge data dump, today was quiet for any new headlines or stories.  Managed money and funds continue to push towards larger net-short positions and, as a total, sit at the second largest all-time short position in corn and third largest all-time in soybeans.  Since we started our dramatic sell off at the turn of the calendar to 2024, the market has tried a few times to turn itself around.  Trade seems to be full of the anticipation of the funds unloading but what we are still lacking is the spark necessary to begin that chain reaction.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.