2/9/2023

Feb 09, 2023


2/9/2023
Light, choppy trade provided just enough sell pressure to corn, soybeans, and wheat to send them all drifting quietly lower throughout the session. March corn traded both its high and low for this week, extending its range for the week from 7 to 10 cents and putting an outside reversal lower on the daily chart. Soybeans had worked their way higher, back to trading near where we opened the week at but were swiftly sold off at the 8:30 open. Weekly export sales were on the top end of expectations for corn and the low end of expectations for soybeans. Last week's sales netted out at 1.16 mln tonnes of corn and 459k tonnes of soybeans. Export sales pace to date for corn are short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 246 million bushels, a 10-million-bushel improvement from prior week. Soybean sales pace exceeds the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 64 million bushels, down from 72 million bushels last week.

Some of the tightest range trade we’ve seen in corn in a long time this week. 100- and 200-day moving averages beginning to roll over. Looking for a combination of support between the 50-day moving average and the bottom side of our wedge near 665’0.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.