2/9/2023

Feb 09, 2023


2/9/2023
Light, choppy trade provided just enough sell pressure to corn, soybeans, and wheat to send them all drifting quietly lower throughout the session. March corn traded both its high and low for this week, extending its range for the week from 7 to 10 cents and putting an outside reversal lower on the daily chart. Soybeans had worked their way higher, back to trading near where we opened the week at but were swiftly sold off at the 8:30 open. Weekly export sales were on the top end of expectations for corn and the low end of expectations for soybeans. Last week's sales netted out at 1.16 mln tonnes of corn and 459k tonnes of soybeans. Export sales pace to date for corn are short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 246 million bushels, a 10-million-bushel improvement from prior week. Soybean sales pace exceeds the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 64 million bushels, down from 72 million bushels last week.

Some of the tightest range trade we’ve seen in corn in a long time this week. 100- and 200-day moving averages beginning to roll over. Looking for a combination of support between the 50-day moving average and the bottom side of our wedge near 665’0.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.