2/9/2021

Spec money continued to flow into the corn and bean boards overnight and into the morning session.  Corn was trading 11 higher, setting new contract highs, and beans were 19 higher shortly before the report release.  The USDA gave trade the carryout number it was looking for in beans of 120 million bushels (121 estimated) but trimmed only 50 million bu off corn for a carryout of 1.502 bln bu (trade avg was 1.382).  The only changes made to lower carryout from the January report were increases in exports for both corn and beans.  The immediate reaction to the report saw corn trade as much as 19 lower and beans 10 lower.  A large portion of those losses were recovered by noon and trade continued to build back momentum through the rest of the session.  The biggest surprise in today's report was a cut in global ending stocks for wheat.  Despite a 9 million bu decrease in inventory, wheat remains plentiful but it continues to rally due to spillover from the corn and bean trade and legislative interference in several countries.  Even though we did not get as large of a cut in corn carryout as expected, the long-term outlook remains good.  We will need to see additional exports or another type of increased usage in corn later this year to continue to support our current price levels.