2/8/2024

Feb 08, 2024


HUGE data dump today… CONAB, USDA WASDE, Weekly Export Sales, USDA Flash Sale… Soybeans held well despite the negative USDA report, trade appears to be buying into CONAB's story on the Brazil bean crop… Report was a snoozer for corn but did not provide any new negativity.
-USDA 8 a.m.: 200,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia in the 2023/24 marketing year
-CONAB: Brazil total soybean production at 149.4 mmt versus 154.61 in January, total corn at 113.7 versus 117.6 last month.
-USDA puts Brazil corn production at 124.32 versus 127.0 in January, total soybean at 153.17 versus 157.0 in Jan.
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Corn at the top end of the expected range with 1.219 mln tonnes (600k-1.3 mln tonnes expected).
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Soybean sales miss at 341k tonnes (400k-1.0 mln tonnes expected).

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.