2/8/2024

Feb 08, 2024


HUGE data dump today… CONAB, USDA WASDE, Weekly Export Sales, USDA Flash Sale… Soybeans held well despite the negative USDA report, trade appears to be buying into CONAB's story on the Brazil bean crop… Report was a snoozer for corn but did not provide any new negativity.
-USDA 8 a.m.: 200,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia in the 2023/24 marketing year
-CONAB: Brazil total soybean production at 149.4 mmt versus 154.61 in January, total corn at 113.7 versus 117.6 last month.
-USDA puts Brazil corn production at 124.32 versus 127.0 in January, total soybean at 153.17 versus 157.0 in Jan.
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Corn at the top end of the expected range with 1.219 mln tonnes (600k-1.3 mln tonnes expected).
-U.S. Weekly Export Sales: Soybean sales miss at 341k tonnes (400k-1.0 mln tonnes expected).

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.