2/8/2023

Feb 08, 2023


2/8/2023
This month's WASDE update gave trade a slightly bearish surprise for corn and soybeans.  The USDA lowered ethanol and feed/seed/residual use for corn and left exports unchanged.  Leaving exports unchanged definitely opens the door for the USDA to make cuts on this line in future reports unless some large-scale buying comes in soon.  The numbers trickle down to a small increase of 25 million bushels to our 2022/23 corn ending stocks.  The biggest surprise in today's report was the 15-million-bushel increase to soybean ending stocks for the current crop year.  The USDA lowered crush demand and left exports unchanged to take our soybean balance sheet to a net increase.  Trade had expected an increase in soy exports.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.