Feb 07, 2024

A very defensive trading session just ahead of tomorrow's fresh CONAB and USDA WASDE and reports. Corn shot to fresh lows overnight and soybeans traded down 20 cents before recovering slightly. Trade cited significant rainfall that materialized in Argentina on Tuesday night was perfectly timed behind some extremely hot temperatures last week. This was enough for the funds to pile on some more short positions. The market has given us some solid looks and setups for a turn-around but there just has not been anything to spark a rally. Weekly ethanol production was up 42,000 barrels/day to 1.033 mln bbls. Ethanol stocks also increased by 500k barrels last week. There is some good coming out of the lower trending markets as it appears the supply/demand relationship is doing its job for corn. Corn use for ethanol is currently exceeding the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast by 65 million bushels and an on-going bull market in cattle continues to encourage the feeding of corn. Along with that, export volume is okay. The USDA corn balance sheet will need time to reflect this but there is real potential that our current ending stocks of 2.162 bln bu could erode below 2.0.

Tomorrow’s report could create an important move for soybeans. The market has a chance to right the ship and get a foothold above $12 or break out lower to test the contract lows from June.

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Jun 17, 2024
Down hard across the grain complex to begin the week.  Corn finished 6-7 cents lower and soybeans closed 16-22 cents lower.  It's no secret that there is a variety of little things not perfect with the corn crop.  The...
Jun 14, 2024
Grains were negative in overnight trade and weakness continued to build throughout the day. Corn gave us a very brief look at some 1 cent higher trade this morning before flipping back to the red. Corn basis and spreads...
Jun 13, 2024
Decent bounce in corn and soybeans on Thursday. With the USDA not offering much in yesterday's WASDE, the market turns back to a money flow game. Weather outlooks showing potential for some above normal...