Grain > Commentary > 2-7-2024

2/7/2024

Feb 07, 2024

A very defensive trading session just ahead of tomorrow's fresh CONAB and USDA WASDE and reports. Corn shot to fresh lows overnight and soybeans traded down 20 cents before recovering slightly. Trade cited significant rainfall that materialized in Argentina on Tuesday night was perfectly timed behind some extremely hot temperatures last week. This was enough for the funds to pile on some more short positions. The market has given us some solid looks and setups for a turn-around but there just has not been anything to spark a rally. Weekly ethanol production was up 42,000 barrels/day to 1.033 mln bbls. Ethanol stocks also increased by 500k barrels last week. There is some good coming out of the lower trending markets as it appears the supply/demand relationship is doing its job for corn. Corn use for ethanol is currently exceeding the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast by 65 million bushels and an on-going bull market in cattle continues to encourage the feeding of corn. Along with that, export volume is okay. The USDA corn balance sheet will need time to reflect this but there is real potential that our current ending stocks of 2.162 bln bu could erode below 2.0.

Tomorrow’s report could create an important move for soybeans. The market has a chance to right the ship and get a foothold above $12 or break out lower to test the contract lows from June.

Read More News

6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.