2/6/2024

Feb 06, 2024


Another uneventful trading session as the market continues to chop.  Corn ranged from 3 higher to 4 lower throughout the day.  Soybeans featured some excitedment early in the session, trading to 9 cents higher before fading back and finishing 1-3 cents higher.  There were no notable headlines or USDA reports today but we did get the full trade estimates for Thursday's WASDE report.  Analysts do not foresee much of a shake up in the U.S. crop balance sheets and expect a small cut in corn ending stocks and a small increase in soybeans ending stocks.  What will be given some consideration from trade is what the USDA does with production in South America.  In typical fashion, private analysts have been much quicker to cut the Brazil soybean crop down over the past few months while the USDA has taken the slower approach.  Analysts are looking for the USDA to reduce Brazil soy production from 157.0 to 153.15 million tonnes and corn from 127.0 to 124.32.  These numbers would need to go sub-150 and -120 over the next few reports to wake up the market.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.