2/5/2024

Feb 05, 2024


Soybeans were quietly 4-7 cents higher and corn mostly unchanged to begin the week.  The grind continues, picking up where we left off last week as the market evaluated some weekend rain in South America.  This morning, the USDA announced 155,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  There was a little bit of role reversal in the weekly export inspections report.  Total tonnes shipped last week between corn and soybeans were near the top end of the trading range total guess but corn missed to the low side and soybeans well outperformed their high estimate.  Shipments totaled 624k tonnes for corn and 1.426 mln tonnes for soybeans.  That was a 10-week high for soybeans.  We should begin seeing an upswing in corn shipments as we near their seasonal window for shipping.  Marketing year to date, corn shipments slow their pace to an 11-million-bushel surplus versus an 18-million-bushel surplus last week.  Soybean shipments improve from 68 million bushels behind the USDA target pace to a 64-million-bushel deficit.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.