Grain > Commentary > 2-5-2024

2/5/2024

Feb 05, 2024

Soybeans were quietly 4-7 cents higher and corn mostly unchanged to begin the week.  The grind continues, picking up where we left off last week as the market evaluated some weekend rain in South America.  This morning, the USDA announced 155,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  There was a little bit of role reversal in the weekly export inspections report.  Total tonnes shipped last week between corn and soybeans were near the top end of the trading range total guess but corn missed to the low side and soybeans well outperformed their high estimate.  Shipments totaled 624k tonnes for corn and 1.426 mln tonnes for soybeans.  That was a 10-week high for soybeans.  We should begin seeing an upswing in corn shipments as we near their seasonal window for shipping.  Marketing year to date, corn shipments slow their pace to an 11-million-bushel surplus versus an 18-million-bushel surplus last week.  Soybean shipments improve from 68 million bushels behind the USDA target pace to a 64-million-bushel deficit.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.