Grain > Commentary > 2-5-2024

2/5/2024

Feb 05, 2024

Soybeans were quietly 4-7 cents higher and corn mostly unchanged to begin the week.  The grind continues, picking up where we left off last week as the market evaluated some weekend rain in South America.  This morning, the USDA announced 155,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  There was a little bit of role reversal in the weekly export inspections report.  Total tonnes shipped last week between corn and soybeans were near the top end of the trading range total guess but corn missed to the low side and soybeans well outperformed their high estimate.  Shipments totaled 624k tonnes for corn and 1.426 mln tonnes for soybeans.  That was a 10-week high for soybeans.  We should begin seeing an upswing in corn shipments as we near their seasonal window for shipping.  Marketing year to date, corn shipments slow their pace to an 11-million-bushel surplus versus an 18-million-bushel surplus last week.  Soybean shipments improve from 68 million bushels behind the USDA target pace to a 64-million-bushel deficit.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.