2/5/2024

Feb 05, 2024


Soybeans were quietly 4-7 cents higher and corn mostly unchanged to begin the week.  The grind continues, picking up where we left off last week as the market evaluated some weekend rain in South America.  This morning, the USDA announced 155,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  There was a little bit of role reversal in the weekly export inspections report.  Total tonnes shipped last week between corn and soybeans were near the top end of the trading range total guess but corn missed to the low side and soybeans well outperformed their high estimate.  Shipments totaled 624k tonnes for corn and 1.426 mln tonnes for soybeans.  That was a 10-week high for soybeans.  We should begin seeing an upswing in corn shipments as we near their seasonal window for shipping.  Marketing year to date, corn shipments slow their pace to an 11-million-bushel surplus versus an 18-million-bushel surplus last week.  Soybean shipments improve from 68 million bushels behind the USDA target pace to a 64-million-bushel deficit.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.